This Flexible Load Technical Potential project is exploring the expected growth in electrification technologies and estimating the effect on residential, small commercial, and medium commercial customer load profiles as well as estimating the technical potential of flexible load as these load profiles change over time. To the extent possible, this flexible load potential study utilized publicly available data to estimate the flexible load potential for SCE today (2023), in 2030, and in 2035. SCE publishes load profiles based on tariff classification and the hourly load profile data for 2022 and 2023 (through September) were utilized for Medium Commercial Customers (GS-2), Small Commercial Customers (GS-1), and Residential Customers (DOM-S/M) with differentiation between weekday and weekend/holiday. The intent of using this relatively short timeframe was to capture load profiles from the post-COVID pandemic. The SCE specific load profiles were then disaggregated utilizing the U.S. National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) ResStock and ComStock datasets to allocate the SCE load profiles to different end uses. The 2022-23 SCE load profile data utilized for this study has already incorporated some level of customer load shifting in response to TOU pricing. As a result, this flexible load potential estimate assumed a 20% flexible load potential for end uses identified as being capable of providing a level of flexible load. Electric Vehicle (EV) customer load profiles were included in the SCE load profiles, but this analysis needed to separate the EV load profiles from the 2022-23 SCE load profiles as a basis for projecting load growth for 2030 and 2035.
This flexible load potential study includes:
- illustrations of the 2023 load profiles with end use disaggregation and an estimation of the flexible load potential,
- the forecasted modifications to end use disaggregation load profiles after applying the individual end use load forecasts for 2030 and 2035, and
- the 2030 and 2035 load profiles normalized to the CEC energy demand forecast with end use disaggregation and an estimation of the flexible load potential.
