Residential HPWH Market Study and Measure Gap Analysis

The California Electronic Technical Reference Manual (eTRM) currently offers two measure packages for Residential Heat Pump Water Heaters (HPWHs). However, these packages are limited due to the low market penetration of heat pump water heaters (HPWHs) in previous years, resulting in measure offerings that do not cover the full range of installations in the market. Key limitations include eligibility restrictions based on tank size and efficacy, as well as limitations in the water heating savings calculation tool. The objectives of this project are to recommend enhancements to the eTRM measure packages for Residential HPWHs and identify areas to further the development of the DEER calculation tool. Avoided cost calculators and consideration of demand flexibility programs will assist in creating successful eTRM measure packages and transformation of the residential water heating market in the next five years.  To achieve these objectives, the project team collected data from various sources, including the TECH Clean California Program (TECH), the California Energy Data and Reporting System (CEDARS), the Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP), the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI), and HPWH manufacturers. These sources were compared to current eTRM offerings and insights from supply chain interviews to identify trends and measure opportunities. Interviews were conducted with relevant stakeholders, including a statewide incentive program, three manufacturers, and one installer.   Based on the evidence gathered, the project team offers several recommendations to enhance the eTRM's support for residential HPWHs.   The addition of new efficacy tiers to the SWWH025 and SWWH014 measure packages to accommodate HPWHs with Uniform Energy Factor (UEF) values above 4.   The addition of new efficacy tiers to both measure packages for HPWHs between 2.60 UEF and 3.30 UEF, particularly addressing 120V HPWHs.  Expansion of measure offerings allowing change in tank size.   Updates to the DEER Water Heater Calculator that account for current market practices including 120V HPWHs and larger tank sizing, which will, in turn, allow new measure offerings to capture the benefits of those practices.   These recommendations aim to align the eTRM with evolving market dynamics, technological advancements, and efficiency and demand management program offerings, ensuring robust support for residential HPWHs.