HVAC Technology Roadmap

The project develops a tool, in the form of an Excel spreadsheet, for SCE to determine which HVAC market segments offer the highest potential for kWh and peak kW savings. This allows users to focus the attention of future projects on those measures that will provide the greatest impact. The tool is based upon qualitative assessment of the market.

The Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) Application Matrix seeks to develop a simple and powerful method to target high impact HVAC measures for commercial buildings. The secondary goal was to demonstrate that the methods used to develop the earlier Lighting Application Matrix could be adapted to identify opportunities for other technologies and markets. Standard practice for developing an energy efficiency (EE) program portfolio calls for gathering information from multi-year comprehensive market potential studies. However, because these studies are often costly and time-consuming, they may be delayed until later stages of program development, or deferred completely. In 2010, BC Hydro developed a novel solution to this conundrum: the Lighting Application Matrix. The Lighting Matrix uses the capabilities of a spreadsheet to combine two different types of information. The two are lighting technology energy savings, and BC Hydro data on lighting energy use by market segment and building space type. The two help to yield data-driven estimates of the combinations of lighting measures and specific market areas that can generate the greatest energy savings over the next few years. Based on the success of the Lighting Application Matrix, Southern California Edison (SCE) joined with BC Hydro and Bonneville Power Administration to create a similar tool for the commercial retrofit heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) market. The project team used Microsoft Excel workbook software to develop the HVAC Application Matrix by combining HVAC market data by subsector with estimates of energy use by space type, as well as expected savings for progressively more efficient bundles of measures for the applicable HVAC systems. The HVAC Application Matrix is an Excel workbook made up of tabbed worksheets addressing the following successive steps: data collection, assumption development, analysis and graphical display of results. The Matrix uses Excel pivot tables and pivot chart functions for data mining, synthesis, graphical representation, and prioritization of findings based on the data compiled and generated in the worksheets. Results indicate that SCE stands to benefit from programs to address packaged units in multiple sub-sectors, notably restaurants, retail outlets, and other small commercial facilities. This and other data-driven results from the HVAC Application Matrix can provide SCE energy efficiency program managers the information they need to identify and prioritize program options, as well as justify program timing and design decisions. In addition, the pivot capabilities provide a systematic, easy-to-use, and rapid process for exploring the matrix data sets and developing what if scenarios for program planning and targeting. SCE’s EE and EE marketing teams could benefit from using the HVAC Application Matrix to explore different possibilities and develop relevant what if scenarios. As appropriate, these explorations could lead to action plans to design and implement specific measures and programs.