The South Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD) is evaluating proposed zero nitrogen oxide (NOx) standards for residential and commercial space and water heating devices. As a part of its evaluation, SCAQMD needed to examine the potential grid impact. To support this effort, Southern California Edison (SCE) retained E3 to analyze the potential grid impacts of the proposed zero NOx standards. The study assessed incremental electric load increases from space heating, water heating, pool heating, and air conditioning, along with the corresponding electric grid impacts.
Study Overview and Results
The study evaluated potential grid impacts under two policy scenarios:
- Low Policy Scenario: Assumes no major state policy changes in support of building electrification, resulting in California failing to meet its 2030 and 2045 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions targets.
- High Policy Scenario: Assumes the California Air Resources Board (CARB) adopts Zero GHG standards for space and water heating in 2030, enabling California to meet its 2045 GHG emissions target.
Key findings include:
- Low Policy Scenario: The proposed zero NOx standards would result in 10.4 TWh of additional electric load annually by 2050. For context, the electric load in the four counties within SCAQMD territory was 118 TWh in 2020 and is projected to grow to 150 TWh by 2045 under this scenario. The incremental load from the zero NOx standards would represent only a 7% increase by 2045.
- High Policy Scenario: The incremental impacts of the zero NOx standards are significantly lower. The additional electric load remains under 1 TWh annually. It decreases to just 0.13 TWh by 2050, as heat pump adoption under this scenario closely aligns with that driven by the zero NOx standards. From 2029 to 2043, the standards result in minor incremental load, capacity, and infrastructure impacts, which become negligible after 2043 due to high saturation of electric equipment.
Recommendations
This study underscores that the grid impacts of SCAQMD’s zero NOx standards highly depend on California’s broader policies supporting building electrification. While the Low Policy scenario is insufficient to meet California’s climate goals, CARB’s adoption of Zero GHG standards for space and water heating in 2030 would align the state with its 2045 GHG emissions target.
